So What’s New?

[In The Name Of Allah, The Most Beneficent, The Most Merciful]

Well a lot actually, since the last time I wrote on this blog.

First I will answer the question why I deliberately stopped updating this blog. There was a bit of politicking involving elements of the Nigerian state, there were some personal troubles, there was me reassessing if being a semi-known blogger/writer was really what I wanted for my life going forward. And finally there was me wondering what the purpose of my writing on this blog, for those few journals kind enough to give me writing space, and on my twitter handle, was.

Options To Stabilise And Secure Kaduna State, Nigeria

This paper was republished with permission from the Conflict Studies And Analysis Project at the Global Initiative For Civil Stabilisation.

Originally Published on 31st December 2019 at: https://wp.me/paxw9M-19

 

Author

Muhammad Mansur is a Senior Associate Fellow at the Conflict Studies And Analysis Project at the Global Initiative For Civil Stabilisation(GICS).

Fulan Nasrullah is a national security policy adviser, and the Director of the Conflict Studies and Analysis Project at GICS.

While Conflict Studies And Analysis Project content may contain primary source material, it does not contain information of an official or otherwise classified nature, neither does it represent the official position of any government, organisation, agency or group.

Security Situation

Kaduna State in Northwest Nigeria faces destabilising long term threats to public safety and state security, which have the potential to further destabilise the rest of Nigeria.

Strategic Thinking Behind Ongoing Insurgent Offensive Operations In Northeast Nigeria- An Analysis

GICS Conflict Studies

Author

Fulan Nasrullah is a national security policy advisor based in Nigeria. He has worked extensively on understanding the Boko Haram Insurgency. He is a founder of the Conflict Studies And Analysis Project. He sometimes tweets in a personal capacity via @fulannasrullah.

While Conflict Studies And Analysis Project content may contain primary source material, it does not contain information of an official or otherwise classified nature, neither does it represent the official position of any government, organisation, agency or group.

Sourcing And Verification

The analysis contained in this brief is informed by primary source information[1], to which rigorous vetting and verification processes have been applied in order to ensure that the final product is as accurate and reflective of the situation as possible.

Outline

1. Background
2. The Bolduc Plan
3. Impact Of Deep Punch I&II On ISWAP Strategic Thinking
4. Impact of Deep Punch I&II On Jamaa’atu Ahlis-Sunnati Lid-Da’wati Wal-Jihad
5. Jamaa’atu Ahlis-Sunnati…

View original post 5,052 more words

Assessment Of The Current State Of The Boko Haram War- CSAAP

This was first published on the Conflict Studies And Analysis Project blog.

 

Fulan Nasrullah is a national security policy advisor, based in Nigeria. He is a founder of Conflict Studies And Analysis Project. He sometimes tweets via @fulannasrullah.

Conflict Studies And Analysis Project’s content does not contain information of a classified or otherwise official nature, neither does the content represent the position of any governmental or non governmental entity.

Summary: While the current campaign, comprising Deep Punch I&II, of the Nigerian Armed Forces in Northern Borno have increased pressure on the insurgent groups in the area, limited resources diverted to staunch the increasing flow of instability in the Northwest and North Central parts of Nigeria,  coupled with insurgent resilience, strategic miscalculations and regional partner weakness, may ultimately prolong the current strategic stalemate at the detriment of the Nigerian State, or return the initiative to the insurgents by creating gaps that they can exploit.

Newsweek Article Disclaimer

Bismillahir-Rahmanir-Raheem

All Praises belong to Allah, Who Has Made Striving in His Cause an act of worship, and Who Has Created all of creation for the purpose of His Worship, and salutations and blessings be upon His Noble Messenger, Muhammad Bin ‘Abdillah, the best of all creations of Allah, and the Termination of Prophethood.

There is a recent article I have been made aware of in Newsweek Magazine claiming to be a ‘rare interview’ with me.  I wish to clarify that I did not grant any interview for Newsweek Magazine to the author at any time.

The Lake Chad: Bleak Reality Behind A Wall Of Propaganda

The war against the Boko Haram insurgency from the very start has been plagued by a severe lack of credible information and well formed understandings, both from the government side and from the insurgency. In the absence of credible information, analysts, so called experts, and even policy makers in the West, were forced to rely on speculations, assumptions, and tainted information to reach conclusions. The information situation only worsened as the propaganda war between the Nigerian government( and its MNJTF allies) and the insurgents took flight, until it has gotten to the point where very little information filters into the open source domain that is not a propaganda piece.

The Noose Tightens Around Maiduguri: Can It Survive A Long Grueling Siege?

The Noose Tightens Around Maiduguri

 

In 2014 after Shekau proclaimed the rule of an Islamic State over areas under his control in what is now understood to have been a preparatory move to his pledging allegiance to the so called Islamic State, Khalid Al-Barnawi who had recently at the time gone fully independent, announced at a meeting with his fighters that a plan had been developed to conquer Maiduguri, which was the greatest short term dream they all had. This plan had been called ‘Amaliyatuz-Zalzalah (Operation Earthquake). What he did not mention at that time was that the plan had been developed with Abubakar Shekau and Abu Usaamah Al-Ansari, before the declaration of an Islamic state by Shekau and the subsequent falling out.

Over 4,000 Displaced In Recent ISWAP Operations In Borno State

December 11, Troops were ambushed while escorting food supplies  in full formation from Maiduguri to Bama at Ngurosoyi, and a Lt Col was killed amongst other casualties. The military truck carrying the food  was burnt down.

Part Two Of Zaria Clashes SITREP/SITAN

BismiLlahir-Rahmanir-Rahiim

The first part of this series looked at the events that occurred in Zaria from 1th December 2015 onwards. This part will be looking at the various factors that collided to create this clash, the influencers behind the scenes, and the short and long term probable effects of this clash.

A Situation Report And Situational Analysis On Recent Events In Zaria, Nigeria Part I

BismiLlahir-Rahmaanir-Rahiim.

 

Introduction

 

On  12th December 2015, a series of events occurred in Zaria City, Kaduna State of Northwestern Nigeria, that threaten to throw this country into greater chaos than we are already in. Subsequent to those events, a lot of disinformation and misinformation was thrown into the air by the two sides involved i.e the Nigerian military and the Shia Islamic Movement of Nigeria, as part of deliberate strategies to own the narrative of whatever is expected to come after this, from the very start.. This post is just an attempt to throw some clarity into what occurred, to put forward what I believe may likely occur, and to put certain things in  perspective.